A memorable correlation can become a bad shortcut. The content library includes a story about browser choice predicting employee performance. Without the underlying evidence and context, that is not a sound basis for hiring or judging someone.

01

Ask what else could explain it

A pattern may reflect access, training, role requirements or the environment in which people work. Even a real association does not establish that changing the visible signal would change the outcome. Installing a different browser is not a job skill.

This matters beyond hiring. A customer segment may appear valuable because it receives better service or comes through a different channel. Treating the label as the cause can lead to the wrong intervention.

02

Return to the task

If you want evidence about a person's ability, assess relevant work. If you want to understand a customer behaviour, inspect the actual journey. Use direct observations where possible rather than an interesting proxy that is easier to collect.

For hiring, consistent questions and job-related assessment criteria are a stronger starting point than personal habits unrelated to the role. OPM's structured interview guidance describes that approach.

03

Write the limitation beside the finding

Record the population, period and measurement behind a pattern. Ask whether it holds in the group where you plan to use it. If the evidence is unavailable, keep the story as a prompt for investigation rather than a conclusion.

A useful signal helps you ask a better question. It becomes dangerous when it stops you asking questions at all.

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Field Notes

Make room between the reaction and the decision.

Field Notes

Treat excitement as energy, not evidence.

Field Notes

Ask what would make the advice wrong.